Clinical trials of the human rotavirus vaccine Rotarix™ (RV1) have demonstrated significant reductions in severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in children worldwide. However, no correlate of vaccine efficacy (VE) has yet been established. This paper presents 2 analyses which aimed to investigate whether serum anti-RV IgA measured by ELISA 1 or 2 mo post-vaccination can serve as a correlate of efficacy against RVGE: (1) In a large Phase III efficacy trial (Rota-037), the Prentice criteria for surrogate endpoints was applied to anti-RV IgA seropositivity 1 mo post-vaccination. These criteria determine whether a significant vaccine group effect can be predicted from the surrogate, namely seropositivity (anti-RV IgA concentration >20 U/mL); (2) Among other GSK-sponsored RV1 VE studies, 8 studies which assessed immunogenicity at 1 or 2 mo post-vaccination in all or a sub-cohort of enrolled subjects and had at least 10 RVGE episodes were included in a meta-analysis to measure the regression between clinical VE and VE predicted from immunogenicity (VE1). In Rota-037, anti-RV IgA seropositivity post-vaccination was associated with a lower incidence of any or severe RVGE, however, the proportion of vaccine group effect explained by seropositivity was only 43.6% and 32.7% respectively. This low proportion was due to the vaccine group effect observed in seronegative subjects. In the meta-analysis, the slope of the regression between clinical VE and VE1 was statistically significant. These two independent analyses support the hypothesis that post-vaccination anti-RV IgA seropositivity (antibody concentration ≥20 U/mL) may serve as a useful correlate of efficacy in clinical trials of RV1 vaccines.
- Correlate of efficacy