Statistical Forecasting of Petrol Price in South Africa

This study focuses on the commercial patterns of petrol price in South Africa. Its aim is to determine the continuity of past patterns of the petrol price series into the future using time series techniques. About 14 years monthly-based retail fuel prices of unleaded 95 petrol were collected from the Department of Energy, South Africa. Price settings on consumer goods are used for economic growth. On the other hand, sudden price fluctuations inconvenience consumers. Also, price increases reduce disposable cash for the consumers. These patterns reduce wealth and for the average consumer they may lead to poverty. The study results show that in South Africa, the upward trend variation continues into the future petrol price in a quadratic rate while there are also some indications of seasonality of petrol price.