TY - JOUR
T1 - Using treatment and vaccination strategies to investigate transmission dynamics of influenza mathematical model
AU - Zakirullah,
AU - Li, Liang
AU - Shah, Kamal
AU - Abdalla, Bahaaeldin
AU - Abdeljawad, Thabet
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 The Author(s)
PY - 2025/9
Y1 - 2025/9
N2 - In this study, we built a deterministic compartmental mathematical model for understanding the transmission dynamics of influenza. The model includes multiple infection phases, including susceptible, exposed, carrier, infected, hospitalized, recovered, and vaccinated populations. Real-world epidemiology data calibrate the model using a least squares optimization approach. The model is mathematically well-posed, with demonstrations of existence, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness of solutions. The basic reproduction number R0 is computed using the next generation matrix approach. It is found to be 0.480, showing that a single infected individual, on average, infects less than one person in a completely susceptible population. Stability analysis is performed using a Lyapunov function, revealing that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when R0<1 and globally stable when R0>1. Sensitivity analysis suggests that vaccination has a more substantial effect on decreasing transmission compared to treatment. Contour plots of R0 with respect to key parameters demonstrate that intervention techniques affect epidemic control. Numerical simulations are carried out utilizing the Nonstandard Finite Difference (NSFD) approach to confirm the analytical findings and explore alternative control situations.
AB - In this study, we built a deterministic compartmental mathematical model for understanding the transmission dynamics of influenza. The model includes multiple infection phases, including susceptible, exposed, carrier, infected, hospitalized, recovered, and vaccinated populations. Real-world epidemiology data calibrate the model using a least squares optimization approach. The model is mathematically well-posed, with demonstrations of existence, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness of solutions. The basic reproduction number R0 is computed using the next generation matrix approach. It is found to be 0.480, showing that a single infected individual, on average, infects less than one person in a completely susceptible population. Stability analysis is performed using a Lyapunov function, revealing that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when R0<1 and globally stable when R0>1. Sensitivity analysis suggests that vaccination has a more substantial effect on decreasing transmission compared to treatment. Contour plots of R0 with respect to key parameters demonstrate that intervention techniques affect epidemic control. Numerical simulations are carried out utilizing the Nonstandard Finite Difference (NSFD) approach to confirm the analytical findings and explore alternative control situations.
KW - Influenza mathematical model
KW - Numerical results
KW - Sensitivity analysis
KW - Stability analysis
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105006836649
U2 - 10.1016/j.asej.2025.103519
DO - 10.1016/j.asej.2025.103519
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105006836649
SN - 2090-4479
VL - 16
JO - Ain Shams Engineering Journal
JF - Ain Shams Engineering Journal
IS - 9
M1 - 103519
ER -